Patricia — Mays Landing area (082)
10.0 kW DC · Installed February 2025 · ACE territory
What got put on the roof
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| System size | 10.0 kW DC |
| Panel count (est.) | 25 panels — assuming 400 W modules |
| Installed | February 2025 |
| Utility | ACE |
| Location | ZIP 082xx (New Jersey) |
Predicted vs actual production
The PVWatts number is what we used pre-install. The observed number is what the meter actually counted.
| Source | Annual production |
|---|---|
| NREL PVWatts prediction | 12,600 kWh |
| Observed (utility data) | 12,894 kWh |
| Delta | +2.3% — over the prediction |
What the SRECs paid out
NJ SREC-II / ADI in ACE territory — each MWh produced earns one SREC, sold quarterly into the NJ market.
12.89 MWh
SRECs registered through the homeowner’s NJ GATS account for the trailing 12-month window. One MWh = one SREC.
$1,009
First-year SREC-II payout. NJ’s administratively determined incentive currently sets $76–95/MWh for 15 years — this study’s number reflects what cleared.
Before vs after the install
| Window | Average monthly bill |
|---|---|
| Before solar | $295 |
| After solar (est.) | $50 — baseline service + non-offset usage |
| Monthly savings | $245 — before SREC income |
Post-solar bill is a conservative $50/month estimate covering the utility delivery charge and seasonal non-offset usage. Real-life results vary month to month with weather and household load.
Homeowner quote
“We're snowbirds — half the year the house is empty. Chris sized the system for our actual usage pattern, not for what we 'should' use.”
Notes from the project
Patricia and her husband are snowbirds — Mays Landing primary, Florida from December through March. Sizing the system to her real usage rather than the standard utility-curve assumption is why the bill drop is so clean. Excess generation in the empty months rolls forward as monthly credits, and the annual true-up at PJM wholesale prices is essentially the cost of having winter-ready power on standby.
How I measure these numbers
- Production: pulled from the homeowner’s utility net-metering portal (export kWh out of the meter back to the grid + self-consumed kWh from a Sense / inverter API where available). Partial-year installs are annualized in 12-month windows starting at permission-to-operate (PTO).
- SREC payout: the homeowner’s NJ GATS account quarterly statement. Reported figure is the first full 12-month window post-registration. NJ SREC-II / ADI in ACE territory.
- Predicted production: the NREL PVWatts v8 number we used in the original quote — same azimuth, tilt, and system loss inputs your installer would file with the utility.
- Before-bill: 12-month average from the utility account history pulled at intake. After-bill is an illustrative $50/month estimate covering delivery charges and non-offset usage; actual months vary with weather and household load.
- Privacy: ZIP3 only (never ZIP+4), first name only, photo only with the homeowner’s written permission.
Want Your Numbers Tracked This Way?
Every install I broker gets the same predicted-vs-observed tracking treatment. Run the calculator with me and I’ll show you what to expect from your roof.